@yosh

Assuming a rate of long Covid of .15, 1 infection per year, over 10 years:

Then the likelihood of catching long Covid over this period is
p (LongCov) = 1 - (1-r)^t
p (LongCov) = 1 - (1 - .15)^10
p (LongCov) = 1 - (.85)^10
p (LongCov) = 1 - .1969
p (LongCov) = .8031 , which means over 80% of the population will get long Covid after 10 yea...

Sorry, that's probably not exactly the question you were asking, huh?

But it is a question I will be asking my students, so thanks for the post!